Appendix 10

Commentary

Roll Forward of Inspector’s Methodology to 31st March 2000

Notes/Source Data

Section 1: Completions

i) Comparison of average completions over the last 5 years with the previous 5 year period.

ii) Applying rate of decline over remaining Plan periods.

Phase 1

Phase 2

1991-1995= 94 dwellings

1995-1999 = 80

14 ÷ 5 years

= 2.8 dw pa decline

Base of 80 dwellings

Apr 00 - Mar 01 = 77.2 dwellings

Mar 01 - Apr 02 =74.4

Mar 02 - Apr 03= 71.6

Mar 03 - Apr 04 =68.8

Mar 04 - Apr 05= 66.0

Mar 05 - Apr 06 =63.2

___________________

=344 dwellings

Appendix 9

Annual completions is based on calendar year figures. (Jan-Dec)

(See Inspector’s Report para 7.39 for original comparison)

Section 2: Permissions

i) Comparison of annual average
permissions over the last 5 years
with the previous 5 year period*

Apr 90 - Mar 95 = 91

Apr 95 - Mar 00 = 95

4 ÷ 5 years

= 0.8 dw pa. increase

Appendix 9.

Permissions are based on financial year’s data (i.e. April-March).

*The Inspector’s 10 year average as used in his report has been revised by using the 5 year average as per his recommendation in para 7.88 x.b.

ii) Applying permission rate over
remaining Plan period.

Phase 1

Phase 2

Base of 95 dwellings

Apr 00 - Mar 01 = 95.8 dwellings

Apr 01 - Mar 02 =96.6

Apr 02 - Mar 03 =97.4

Apr 03 - Mar 04 =98.2

Apr 04 - Mar 05 =99.0

Apr 05 - Mar 06 =99.8

___________________

=491 dwellings

iii) Implementation Rate

Completions January 1995 - December 1999.

Permissions April 1995 – March 2000

Derived Implementation Rate

=400 dwellings

=476 dwellings

= 84%

(i.e. 400 ÷ 476 x 100)

iv) Applying derived implementation
rate to anticipated permissions
to give expected completions.

Phase 1 (to 2001)

Phase (2001-2006)

95 dwellings

x 84% = 79 dwellings

491 dwellings

x 84% = 412 dwellings

Section 3 : Projected

Completions Figures

Completion Based

Permissions Based

Average

Figures to be used in Table 6.1
of Local Plan

2000-2001

77

79

78

78

2001-2006

344

412

N/A

344

Projected completions derived as:

i) Pre 2001 – average of anticipated completions and derived completions from anticipated permissions methodology

ii) Post 2001 - the lower of the two derived figures is used